Sunday, January 11, 2015

A Game of Turnovers

 Ravens’ Postseason Results Illustrate the Importance—and Fickleness—of TOs


By Deghasio 

Two years ago almost to the day, Joe Flacco made one of the biggest plays in NFL history down 7 to Peyton Manning’s Broncos. Jacoby Jones ran in a straight line down the sideline, Flacco heaved up a prayer, and the Ravens play-by-play announcer could only laugh in disbelief as Broncos’ CB Rahim Moore failed to stop a 70-yard TD pass with 31 seconds on the clock. League MVP Manning threw his second interception of the game in OT, and Delaware’s finest Joe Flacco capped off one of the most remarkable postseason runs with a Super Bowl MVP trophy and a brand spanking new $120.6 million contract.



On Saturday, Flacco was in an extremely similar situation. Down 4 to another all-time great, Tom Brady, Flacco, threw the ball to another speedster, Torrey Smith. This time, Patriots’ safety Duron Harmon (who, FYI, is a lesser-known football player with Delaware connections) intercepted the quasi-Hail Mary in the end zone. Flacco, despite throwing for four TDs, was going home before the big game in February.

These two games illustrate that football, despite its reputation as a “game of inches,” is really a game of turnovers. During his incredible postseason run, Flacco only had one TO the entire season (a fumble against Denver, and no INTs). By my count, during their four 2012 postseason games, the Ravens had 17 of what I will call “turnover opportunities,” i.e. interceptions + fumbles. During those 17 opportunities, Baltimore came away with the ball 13 times. The nitty-gritty details are in the table below: