A Game of Turnovers

 Ravens’ Postseason Results Illustrate the Importance—and Fickleness—of TOs

By Deghasio 

Two years ago almost to the day, Joe Flacco made one of the biggest plays in NFL history down 7 to Peyton Manning’s Broncos. Jacoby Jones ran in a straight line down the sideline, Flacco heaved up a prayer, and the Ravens play-by-play announcer could only laugh in disbelief as Broncos’ CB Rahim Moore failed to stop a 70-yard TD pass with 31 seconds on the clock. League MVP Manning threw his second interception of the game in OT, and Delaware’s finest Joe Flacco capped off one of the most remarkable postseason runs with a Super Bowl MVP trophy and a brand spanking new $120.6 million contract.

On Saturday, Flacco was in an extremely similar situation. Down 4 to another all-time great, Tom Brady, Flacco, threw the ball to another speedster, Torrey Smith. This time, Patriots’ safety Duron Harmon (who, FYI, is a lesser-known football player with Delaware connections) intercepted the quasi-Hail Mary in the end zone. Flacco, despite throwing for four TDs, was going home before the big game in February.

These two games illustrate that football, despite its reputation as a “game of inches,” is really a game of turnovers. During his incredible postseason run, Flacco only had one TO the entire season (a fumble against Denver, and no INTs). By my count, during their four 2012 postseason games, the Ravens had 17 of what I will call “turnover opportunities,” i.e. interceptions + fumbles. During those 17 opportunities, Baltimore came away with the ball 13 times. The nitty-gritty details are in the table below:

Cardinals-Panthers, The Delicious Sloppy Joe of the NFL Playoffs

by Deghasio

On Saturday afternoon, the 11-5 Arizona Cardinals will travel to Carolina to play the 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers. Just in terms of records, this is unusual.  The Panthers ended a game this year with a draw, an occurrence so rare that you can count the number of tie games this millennium on one hand. (Ultimately the tie did not effect whether or not the Panthers made the playoffs; even if Bengals kicker Mike Nugent made a week 6 36-yarder the Panthers still would have made the playoffs because they have a better division record than the Saints.) Furthermore, sub-.500 teams rarely have the opportunity to host games in January. The last instance was in the 2010 season when the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints lost 41-36 to the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks despite being double-digit favorites, a game punctuated by the famous Beast Quake.

NFL MVP Race

At the end of the NFL regular season, the MVP race has boiled down to two men.  One is Green Bay's quarterback Aaron Rodgers who is lighting up opposing defenses while throwing more touchdowns than any QB other than five time MVP Peyton Manning and up and coming superstar Andrew Luck. Moreover, Rodgers has led the Packers to their fourth consecutive NFC North title, which he clinched after returning to the game with a calf injury.  Upon his return he continued to be a grittily effective passer, and scored a rushing touchdown off of a QB-sneak to lead the team to a 30-20 victory over the Detroit Lions.

Everyone watching that game understood how amazing a performance Rodgers was putting up.  In addition to being at the top of the pack for all QB stats, Rodgers also is at his best when injured, or throwing off of his back foot, or scrambling away from defensive penetration.  However, we have all been conditioned to recognize offensive ball-handlers levels of success, while we still have trouble noticing a dominant performance on the defensive side of the ball.

That fact is what makes the other MVP frontrunner such an amazing player.  J.J. Watt of the Houston Texans is a walking highlight reel.  He is anticipated to be the first defensive player since 2008 to even receive a single vote in the AP poll (which is used to pick the MVP) and judging by the videos of his "awkward TD celebration" and the reports that all he does is live and breathe football it is not his charisma winning him votes.  Instead, it is just the formal recognition of a football machine doing its job better than any football machine has been designed to perform.  Some of his stats on their own are not unimaginable, but it is the combination of 20.5 sacks, 59 tackles, an interception, four forced fumbles, 5 fumbles returns, a safety, and to top it off he caught 3/3 passes for 3 offensive touchdowns.  In short, J.J. Watt is a walking destroyer of Quarterbacks who dream of standing up long enough to throw a football, and we are all realizing that enough to at least have some people vote for him.  However, since only two defensive players have ever won the MVP award, all of the semi-related reasons to fault Watt begin to gain even more relative importance.

The largest difference between Rodgers and Watt which is directly comparable is the success of their teams.  The Packers as I've pointed out have won their division for the fourth year in a row.  The Texans failed to make the playoffs, but they also improved their record by seven wins, the most by any team in the league.  That improvement did come in the AFC South, by far the weakest division in the NFL this season, but it was also due in large part to Watt.

Overall, the difficulty in comparing these two players is immense.  Also, both players have had MVP-worthy seasons.  If this were just a case of an above average QB winning the award because we value offense higher, then I would hope for Watt to win, but it is instead a situation where both of them have carried there teams to wins, and both of them pass the "do I think Holy *&(# regularly when I watch them play" test, which to me is the most important.  So now all there is to do is wait for the votes to come in.

The Important Part:
Aaron Rodgers's Sandwich:  A Cheeseburger made with a lot of Wisconsin cheddar cheese, because he is the kind of player who can satisfy all your NFL watching hunger for a day, and you don't need to be from Green Bay to appreciate his play.

J.J. Watt's Sandwich: J.J. Watt is the record breaking Sarnie, because like Watt it is chock-ful-a protein, took a long time and a lot of hard work to create, and probably isn't going to receive the recognition that he truly deserves.

The Curse of David Akers Continues to Haunt the Eagles

by Deghasio

Sports curses are stupid. Just check out the Wikipedia page for “Sports-related curses.” The majority of them are ridiculous, recent, have a small sample size, or have already been broken multiple times. Take the Curse of the Bambino—for 86 years it was probably the most famous sports curse in America, then the Red Sox won and no one really mentions it anymore. Sports curses don’t exist.

Except the Curse of David Akers.

On Saturday, the Eagles were eliminated from the wild card race after a 27-24 loss to Washington, and barring a complete Dallas collapse the Eagles will be on vacation once the regular season ends. There is a lot of speculation as to why the Eagles lost to Washington: Sanchez’s interception inside the two-minute warning, kicker Cody Parkey’s seemingly-benign groin injury, Sanchez’s fumble early in the game, poor coaching that led to 13 penalties, the inevitable DeSean Jackson revenge game, and corner Bradley Fletcher’s performance that led to his benching. These are all good theories based on research and observation and facts. They’re also all wrong.

Watching The NFL: Why Does it make Me Sick to My Stomach?

Sports are supposed to take our mind off of things. The whole reason we watch them is so that we can eat pizza with our buddies and forget the fact that we have work in the morning, or that we haven't taken out the trash, or whatever tedious part of our day to day life that is looming over us. However, inevitably, real life intrudes. Sometimes that can be a powerful thing, with sports being a historical arena where all races could be placed on an equal footing. Jackie Robinson helped to break down barriers and the Dodgers team ultimately helped with that, although somewhat reluctantly.  This happened again this year with the NBA, when Donald Sterling was stripped of his ownership of the LA Clippers by NBA Commissioner Adam Silver after highly publicized racist remarks.  Despite the fact that Silver said (in a GQ man of the year interview) that the NBA's response might have been different had Sterling's remarks been less well publicized or if they had been directed at a minority group which was less well represented within the NBA, it was still a positive action. 

Unfortunately, this year in sports, many such interactions have been negative, and the NFL (the US's biggest pro sports league) has been the biggest problem. This manifested itself with the pro team from Washington D.C. which still insists on standing by its team name (citing loyalty to the fans) despite the fact that the name inherently alienates a significant portion of the US population.  However, this problem is one of stagnation which over time, and combined with the protests coming from both public figures and the population at large, this issue will be resolved as soon as Dan Snyder (the owner) realizes that his stubbornness is cruel and that it benefits no one.  More terrifying, is the NFL the institution, specifically its handling of women’s issues. 

Recently, my fantasy football league’s message thread blew up with the news that Ray Rice had been reinstated.  We were all unsurprised, because this sort of thing has been happening all year.  As one person said, “Ladies and Gentlemen, the 2014 NFL….Actually, make that just Gentlemen.”  At a time when women make up more than 45% percent of the NFL’s fan base, the League is doing a terrible job at even pretending to value women’s issues.  Three weeks after the NFL handed down Ray Rice’s two-week suspension (with full knowledge of the horrifying video that led to increased public outrage), the NFL suspended Orlando Scandrick for a full month.  What did he do?  He tested positive for MDMA, a party drug.  The NFL is fully invested in defending the moral character of the league, but they see drugs as more of a problem than cold-clocking one’s wife on an elevator and then dragging her down the hallway. 

This disconnect makes it difficult to watch sports.  You want to be able to watch the St. Louis Cardinals play their playoff game, but you see parts of their fan base display an insensitive, and at times incredibly racist response to the events in Ferguson, chanting things like “Let’s go Darren!” back at demonstrators.  You want to support a team, but if its name is a racial slur, how can you?  The good news now is that Ray Rice was dropped from the Ravens roster after the video surfaced, and it is hard to imagine any team picking him up this late in the season.  However, in this instance the damage is done.  The NFL was tested on its humanity, and it gave Rice a slap on the wrist until public opinion swayed further against him.  The NFL is hard to watch this year, and that is the opposite of what sports should be. 

The Sandwich:  A peanut butter and pickle sandwich, which I recently discovered is a real thing.  It works well with these issues, because it tastes bad at first, but then begins to work itself out.  Similarly, these issues will only get better with time, as already people are striving to improve them.

Harrison and Dhario Get a Little Help from Their Friends [Podcast]

Dhario and Harrison reveal their fantasy football team names, analyze Federer's injury, and discuss how to maximize sandwich making in a cafeteria. All the usual segments--plus some special bits (including a weather forecast!) from some longtime listeners.

Try to Remember Nikolay Davydenko

By Deghasio

It’s easy to forget Nikolay Davydenko. The Russian, who retired last month, had a career high ranking of number 3, never reached a grand slam final, never beat the best players when it mattered. He didn’t had a signature shot, like Hewitt’s lob or Nalbandian’s backhand, and he lacked the fiery personality—and domestic popularity—of compatriots Marat Safin, Mikhail Youzhny, and even Dmitry Tursunov. Pretty much the only thing he was famous for was being involved in a year-long betting scandal. (He was ultimately exonerated.)

The defining statistic of Davdenko’s career is that he’s a combined 3-24 against Federer and Roddick, including an 0-16 combined start to these “rivalries.” Classic Kolya. He was always, at best, the third best player on tour. At 5’10, 150 lbs., he lacked the firepower to beat the two hall-of-famers at their peak. When he was playing his best, the other nine players in the top 10 probably could beat him if they were playing their best too.

And yet, some facts are undeniable. He was the most consistent player on the tour (non-Federer, non-Nadal division), becoming the first Russian ever to finish in the year-end top 5 five straight years in a row, something Roddick can’t say. He’s the only person, ever, to have a winning record against Nadal (minimum five matches)…albeit with a dominant record of 6-5. And every once in a while he would catch fire, his opponents would be just a step slow, and he could roll of a stretch of victories. That’s what happened when he won his then-biggest tournament in 2008 in Miami, leading one overzealous writer to proclaim: "Who would have thought that tennis could be rescued by Nikolay Davydenko?" (No, really—that was an actual headline.)

It happened again 18 months later, when he won the 2009 Year End Championships. The other players in the tournament? Oh, just some nobodies: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic, Murray, del Potro, Fernando Verdasco, and Robin Soderling. Every player, except Verdasco and newly minted US Open champ del Potro, would eventually reach multiple grand slam finals. And Davydenko, despite being placed in the group of death, beat Federer for the first time en route to the biggest win of his career over del Potro. He was the perfect version of David Ferrer, running around, getting back every ball, and using whatever small opening his opponent gave him to seize the advantage.

Although this was the biggest tournament for Davydenko, it won’t be the one that defines him for me. That would be the 2010 Australian Open. He entered the tournament on a—well, not a winning streak, but a winning patch against Federer, having beating him in the ’09 Finals and a warm-up tournament in Doha. The hottest player on tour (though maybe not in looks), then got bagelled by Federer in a four-set quarterfinal*. Kolya wouldn't beat Federer for the rest of his career.

*If you don’t click on any links in this article, at least click on the Steve Tignor recap of Davydenko’s ’10 Australian Open in the above paragraph. Also the picture of Davydenko.

So what sandwich is Nikolay Davydenko? I eventually settled on a PB&J. Not the most glamorous sandwich, but one you need to have. There will always be players like Davydenko on the tour. I’ve already mentioned one in Ferrer, but there are scores of them throughout history. Davydenko played the foil to Federer and Roddick and even to Nadal throughout his career. Every time one of the top players played a classic final, Davydenko was in the shadows. He never played The Match against them; he was the guy the top players battled before the match that really mattered. You’re probably not going to remember a PB&J very long, but it was still pretty good when you ate it. That, in two words, is Davydenko’s career: Pretty good.