Friday, August 22, 2014

Why Federer Will Win the US Open!

Sandwich best paired with: Pimento Cheese Sandwich

WHY THE SANDWICH:
Federer at the US Open is best watched with a pimento cheese sandwich.  According to Wikipedia Pimento Cheese is also known as the “Caviar of the South” so obviously it fits well with Federer’s ability to bring an air of sophistication to an event that otherwise involves two humans sweating for five hours (yes I know that Federer doesn’t ever sweat an amount that can’t be dealt with by a slow, sultry, sweep of his bangs).  Moreover, based on my personal “research”, only old people actually like Pimento Cheese (you haven’t really been to a church potluck in my hometown of Nashville unless at least one out of every three elderly members of your church brings some form of pimento cheese, just FYI the other two bring either chili or a dessert that will bring a tear to your eye), and also according to my “research” Federer is 32.  That is a statistic that means “older than a lot of the other guys.”  Like pimento cheese sandwiches, Fed will be at his best if he is kept out of the late summer heat as much as possible.  Unlike other, younger, sandwiches, Federer will probably serve and volley a lot, and try to end points quickly.  
Roger Federer enters the week before the opening of the US Open ranked third in the ATP standings, however, with Rafael Nadal already pulled out due to a lingering wrist injury Federer is likely to be the second seed opposite first seeded Novak Djokovic.  Although Djokovic recently defeated Roger in the final of Wimbledon at the end of a grueling five set match, the match up between the two seems to be slightly different than it was during the fortnight.
Firstly, statistics from the recent North American hard court season show that Fed is on top of his game.  Although Roger’s service games won percentage* has gone down as expected from 95% to 90% (both numbers higher than Novak’s comparable numbers) his return game winning percentage ) arguably a more significant statistic among the elite players has risen from a lower number than Djokovic’s to higher than Novak’s hard court number.  Moreover, ignoring the statistics, Djokovic has lost in the second round of each of the Masters 1000 tournaments he has played while Federer has reached the Finals or won both of those same tournaments.

However, this article up to this point makes it seem as if the US open is simply between Fed and Djokovic.  Obviously that is not true.  Federer has consistently shown that even in his dotage he is able to use his terrifying offensive skills to overpower all but a few of the top players, but there are also those who have the games to defeat him.
The top contender: Andy Murray, although ranked 9th after coming off of back surgery, is looking more fit and was up 4-1 on Federer in the semis of the Western and Southern open before losing to him.  Murray has the game to beat Federer, and the stamina to drag out a long match, but Federer also has the game to beat Murray and if Murray ends up on Djokovic’s side of the draw they are the type who can wear each other out with a five hour barnburner.
The Maybe: Stan Wawrinka outplayed everyone at this years Australian open, but he has not reached that level again since and sometimes hits shots so puzzling that I receive texts from friends saying things like “Wow Stan, what was that?” right after texts from friends that say things like “Wow Stan! That was awesome!”
The HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA:  Milos Raonic is ranked sixth, but he WILL not win against Federer, Djokovic, or Murray.
Everybody Else:  Obviously on a good day any of the top players could win against any of the other top players however, it would be too wacky to predict so I am gonna ignore them all.  


*all stats per ATP website

**as of posting, the US Open draws have come out and let's just say everything is coming up Roger this week. A Djokovic v. Murray match early on the opposite side of the bracket further helps to open up Fed's half. 

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